Australian Open: Women’s Final preview – Sofia Kenin vs. Garbine Muguruza

IN only her third Australian Open, 21-year-old American Sofia Kenin is through to the last match of the fortnight, taking on Spain’s Garbine Muguruza in the women’s final.

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Age: 21 | 26
Height: 170cm | 183cm
Ranking: 15 | 32
Titles: 3 | 7
Grand Slam Titles: 0 | 2
Best Aus Open Result: R2 (19′) | QF (17′)

It is no surprise to see these two players make it through their respective semi-finals given the carnage that has been the women’s draw at Melbourne Park this year. Both underdogs against the top two players in the world – on live rankings – they showed unbelievable spirit and willingness to stand up in big moments to book a spot in the final and try and compete for more than $4 million dollars. Muguruza was always touted as a dark horse in the competition, ranked 32nd but unseeded, she is a Grand Slam winner on both clay and grass, so to complete the three surfaces with a hard court win would be something special.

Having reached the pinnacle of the women’s tour – a Grand Slam winner and world number one – the 26-year-old Spaniard has been to the peak. But she is far from done, given she is entering what many would consider to be the prime of her career. Her first Grand Slam title win was at 22, where she took out the French Open stunning American star, Serena Williams. To show that was not a fluke, she went on to win Wimbledon a year later, this time defeating Serena’s older sister Venus in the decider. The win on grass came two years after Muguruza’s first Grand Slam final – yet another clash with Serena, but ending in defeat, going down 6-4 6-4. At the time, she was just 21-years-old – the same age as Kenin heading into this year’s Grand Slam final.

Since her Wimbledon triumph in 2017, Muguruza has only made the final eight once in nine Grand Slams – a semi-finals appearance at Roland Garros. In the other seven, she has made the Round of 16 twice, but been bundled out in the second round three times, and even had two first round exits – last year at Wimbledon and the US Open. It could be almost unheard of to lose your first set of a Grand Slam 6-0 (as Muguruza did to qualifier, Shelby Rogers) and come back and win the tournament. Since that disastrous first set, she has only dropped one more set – to Australia’s Ajla Tomljanovic in Round 2. From that point on, she dispatched of the fourth, fifth, ninth and 30th seeds in straight sets, two of which were in just over an hour.

Her opponent deserves credit too for making it here. While her stunning straight sets upset over world number one, Ash Barty was her first win against a seed this tournament, she was able to see off giant-killers, Coco Gauff (who defeated reigning champion Naomi Osaka) and Ons Jabeur (who defeated Caroline Wozniacki and Wang Qiang, the latter of whom knocked out Serena Williams). She only dropped the one set on the way to the final, a tiebreaker to Gauff before coming back to win comfortably, 6-7 6-3 6-0 against the 15-year-old. Unlike Muguruza, she does not have Grand Slam history to speak of when it comes to finals. In fact, she has only made it past the first round of the Australian Open this year and last. A fourth round appearance at the French Open was previously’s Kenin’s best effort, but she has far and away gone beyond that. A hard court talent, the youngster has what it takes to match Muguruza whose preferred court surface is clay, though she is a versatile player who can do well on any surface.

These two players have only played the once in their careers, with Kenin winning in three sets against Muguruza at Bejing last year. She triumphed 6-0 2-6 6-2 on her way through to a Round of 16 appearance. The American has won here in Australia, taking home the Hobart International title 12 months ago, before adding Mallorca and Guangzhou to her list of achievements. Muguruza on the other hand just triumphed at Monterrey – going back-to-back at the hard court event. In this match, Muguruza has the experience having been there and won Grand Slams before, while the inexperienced Kenin has the dare and belief she can pull it off. Perhaps she ends up like Muguruza was at her age, going down in her first final to a prior Grand Slam champion, before reversing the result a year later. It is refreshing to see a couple of different names in the final, and it will be a huge boost for the now top-10 Kenin who will rise to seventh in the world if she can win. Muguruza is already up to 16th on the WTA Tour, with a boost up to 12th if she can take out the title. Muguruza in three sets is the tip.

LIVE RANKING | IF SHE WINS:

Sofia Kenin: #9 (+3) | #7
Garbine Muguruza: #16 (+16) | #12

MATCHES:

[14] Sofia Kenin
SF: def. [1] Ash Barty (AUS) 7-6 7-5
QF: def. Ons Jabeur (TUN) 6-4 6-4
R4: def. Coco Gauff (USA) 6-7 6-4 6-0
R3: def. Zhang Shuai (CHN) 7-5 7-6
R2: def. [Q] Ann Li (USA) 6-1 6-3
R1: def. [Q] M. Trevisan (ITA) 6-2 6-4

Garbine Muguruza
SF: def. [4] S. Halep (ROU) 7-6 7-5
QF: def. [30] A. Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) 7-5 6-3
R4: def. [9] K. Bertens (NED) 6-3 6-3
R3: def. [5] E. Svitolina (UKR) 6-1 6-2
R2: def. A. Tomljanovic 6-3 3-6 6-3
R1: def. [Q] S. Rogers 0-6 6-1 6-0

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