IT was an unsurprisingly bumpy start to the return of the WTA Tour at Palermo Ladies Open, but qualifying is now completed with the final 32 players determined ahead of main draw matches in just under 12 hours. Following the withdrawal of the top two ranked players – Simona Halep and Johanna Konta – as well as the likes of Svetlana Kuznetsova, Jelena Ostapenko and Karoline Muchova, the Italian-based tournament has lost some of its star quality.

However that allowed the home country to have some extra local hopes in the main draw, with the top two ranked Italians, Camila Giorgi (89th) and Jasmine Paolini (95th) automatic entries after initially being handed wildcards. This flow-on effect enabled the Italian organisers to reshuffle the wildcards to the next two Italians in teenager, Elisabetta Cocciaretto (157th) and veteran, Sara Errani (169th).

Both of them were chosen over 153rd ranked Martina Trevisan, who then defied her ranking to make it through qualifying and secure a spot in the main draw. The 26-year-old might not have the upside of Cocciaretto, nor the runs on the board of former world number five Errani, but she showed in her 71-minute demolition job of qualifying top seed, Varvara Gracheva that Trevisan is not messing around.

Trevisan won 6-2 6-0 against the 101st ranked Russian, producing a near-perfect serving game with an 84.6 per cent winning record off her first serve, and 60 per cent off her second, as well as saving two break points, and breaking her opponent five times. In the second set, Gracheva won just 10 points in a complete domination by the Italian on home soil as she booked a spot in the next round.

It begs the question, can an Italian win at Palermo, and if so, who?

#89 Camila Giorgi
28-years-old | 2 titles

The top-ranked Italian has won the two titles three years apart, with her maiden title coming on grass at ‘s-Hertogenbosch, followed by a 2018 triumph at Linz on hard court. Whilst predominantly a hard court player, as her three-peat finalist effort at Katowice from 2014-2016 would attest, Giorgi is arguably the best chance considering her form. A former top 30 player, Giorgi has a 10-6 record in 2020 and reached the third round at the Australian Open, winning a set against Angelique Kerber before bowing out in three sets. Consistency has been an issue for the Italian, whose sole clay success came at an ITF 50K event in Dothan eight years ago.

She is only a 48.1 per cent winning record on clay in her career. Giorgi is a power player without an overly strong serve which means she aims to take control early in the points. If her opponents can force the world number 89 to make mistakes, particularly given she has a 46 per cent winning record off the first three points, and only 11 per cent of those are winners. Overall, Giorgi might be considered a chance, as she takes on 44th ranked Rebecca Peterson who has an even poorer 10-22 career win-loss record on clay, in the first round.

#95 Jasmine Paolini
24-years-old | 0 titles

Paolini is not too far off her career-high ranking of 93rd, and a win in the first round would guarantee that she surpassed that effort. She reached a quarter final here last year before going down to eventual finalist and number one seed, Kiki Bertens. Yet to win a title on the WTA Tour, she has been a late bloomer with just 32 matches on Tour, and just seven wins from 21 attempts on clay. The advantage compared to Giorgi is Paolini is more of a preferred clay courter, and plays Daria Kasatkina in the first round. The Italian showed she can win matches in Palermo, so is a solid chance to at least push some of the better players.

#153 Martina Trevisan
26-years-old | 0 titles

Another Italian on the verge of surpassing her career-high ranking of 144th in the world, Trevisan is a competent ITF player. The 26-year-old has good durability across the circuit, but showed when stepping up to WTA Tour level she has struggled, losing to Paolini in the first round of qualifying at Shenzhen this year, then made it through qualifying at the Australian Open before unfortunately copping eventual winner Sofia Kenin in the first round. Last year she went down to Frenchwoman and second seed, Alize Cornet in three sets after winning the first set in Palermo, and in fact her only WTA Tour win in 2019 and most recent on Tour – which at least came on clay – was against unranked Ukrainian, Nadiia Kichenok back at Charleston in April. She showed good form in qualifying, but a real question mark on her consistency.

#157 Elisabetta Cocciaretto
19-years-old | 0 titles

A newbie to the WTA Tour, Cocciaretto is one of the great white hopes for Italians as the 19-year-old hopes to break into the top 150 with a win in Palermo. Like Trevisan though, she has been a solid ITF Tour player, without being a standout stepping up to the Tour. She finished 2019 with a couple of ITF 60K tournament wins on clay in South America, including one in Paraguay where she defeated Errani for the title and it helped move her up inside the top 200. She played at Palermo 12 months ago, pushing but ultimately going down in three sets to third seed Slovakian, Viktoria Kuzmova. Having a 45-19 record on clay at ITF level, she has almost exclusively played on the surface, so if you like the story of an underdog or surprise packet, Cocciaretto could be your player. She takes on Polona Hercog though, who has a 94-67 record on Tour on the surface, her strongest surface. She has seven clay titles since 2017, though granted six of them came on the ITF Tour, with just the one at Lugano last year on the WTA Tour.

#169 Sara Errani
33-years-old | 9 titles

How long does the 33-year-old have left in the legs? It is a valid question considering the former world number five is a shade of her former self. Having not been in the top 100 since 2018, and peaking back in 2013, Errani’s decline over the past five years has been evident. Her last title came in Dubai back in 2016, with her 2012 season – where she picked up four titles, including her second Palermo title – being her standout year. Given she is a two-time winner and two-time finalist here, you can never discount the veteran who has shown she has the goods to be a thorn in the side of top players. Her clay record speaks for itself too, still maintaining a strong 64.6 per cent winning record as her clear best surface. But with 30 WTA Tour matches in the past three years – less than any single year combined since 2007 – it is hard to see the 33-year-old really doing too much damage.

Summary

All five players have an aspect why they can really challenge in Palermo, but none have the complete package. Giorgi has the better recent form, Paolini has the good form here, Trevisan looked electric in qualifying, Cocciaretto has great ITF form, and Errani is a a Roland Garros finalist. However looking objectively at pure facts, it is hard to see an Italian lifting the title, other than if their extended warmup on the courts has helped more than those travelling to Palermo.